PV investment will surpass petroleum
As of mid-2023, during the review and outlook conference for the first half of 2023 in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, the head of the Renewable Energy Development Center at the National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that solar power investment in 2023 is expected to exceed $380 billion, surpassing upstream petroleum investment for the first time.
The same source also mentioned that the projected global energy sector investment for 2023 will reach $2.8 trillion, with over 90% of power investment being allocated to low-emission electricity. Additionally, due to rising fossil fuel prices and import instability, several governments worldwide are expediting their energy structural transformation. With the continuous decline in PV electricity costs and other favorable factors like global green recovery, the global PV capacity is expected to grow rapidly.
It is worth noting that the International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously forecasted solar industry investment to reach $380 billion in 2023, meaning over $1 billion will be invested in the solar energy sector every day. In contrast, oil production investment for 2023 was estimated to be $370 billion, making solar industry investment exceed petroleum for the first time.
According to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), in 2022, investments in renewable energy, nuclear power, zero-emission vehicles, and recycling projects, among others, grew by 31% compared to the previous year, reaching $1.1 trillion, which was equal to the investment in fossil fuels.
Furthermore, the International Energy Agency's projections show that clean energy investments will amount to $1.7 trillion in 2023, while fossil fuel investments will reach $1.1 trillion. Clean energy investments, accounting for about 61% of the total, are surpassing fossil fuel investments, indicating an accelerated global energy transformation.
One of the driving factors behind this energy structural shift is the ongoing rise in fossil fuel prices due to factors like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and geopolitical influences. Francesco La Camera, the Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency, previously stated that renewable energy is currently the most affordable source of energy.
Against this backdrop, PV installations continue to grow. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association recently released a report stating that the global PV capacity added 230 GW in 2022, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.3%, and the cumulative installed capacity reached approximately 1,156 GW. Wang Bohua, the Honorary Chairman of the association, predicts that in 2023, global PV installations will conservatively reach 280 GW and optimistically reach 330 GW.
The IEA's "Renewable Energy 2022" report predicts that with the impetus from the energy crisis, renewable energy installations in various countries have significantly accelerated, and over the next five years, global capacity additions are expected to be nearly double that of the previous five years.
However, amid the ongoing global energy transition, there are noticeable disparities in the pace among different countries.
According to the IEA's "World Energy Investment 2022" report, developing countries, which represent two-thirds of the global population, only account for one-fifth of clean energy investments. Except for China, other developing countries' clean energy spending remains at the level seen in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was signed.
Lin Boqiang, the director of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University, previously stated to the media that due to differences in development stages, income levels, and capacity to bear burdens, countries in the global North and South hold differing long-term views on climate and energy transition policies, historical emissions responsibilities, compensation, carbon emission rights, and other related issues.
These "North-South discrepancies" may continue to hinder the global energy transition process.
