Global photovoltaic demand is projected to increase by 351 GW in 2023.
The COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact the photovoltaic supply chain in 2021-2022, leading to a shortage of silicon materials and resulting in higher prices for photovoltaic modules. As a result, the installation demand was deferred until 2023. However, with the significant release of new silicon material production capacity, prices in various segments of the industry chain are expected to return to normal levels. EnergyTrend, a research center under TrendForce, estimates that global photovoltaic installation demand will increase substantially in 2023, with an additional demand of up to 351 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.4%. Nevertheless, attention should still be given to various issues such as global economic slowdown and high inflation, which may lead to lower-than-expected installation demand.
According to TrendForce's research, the projected photovoltaic installation demand in 2023, from highest to lowest, is as follows: Asia Pacific, Europe, Americas, and Middle East/Africa. The Asia Pacific region is estimated to have a demand of 202.5 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 55.4%. Markets like China, Malaysia, and the Philippines are experiencing rapid installation growth due to policy support, with installation rates exceeding 40% in these regions. On the other hand, mature markets like Japan, Australia, and South Korea are seeing steady growth in installations.
In Europe, TrendForce estimates a photovoltaic installation volume of around 68.6 GW in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%. Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain are the major contributors to installation demand in this region. The availability of subsidies, tax incentives, and decreasing module prices, coupled with high electricity prices, are driving the growth of photovoltaic installations in Europe. Additionally, with the easing of permit and approval times for photovoltaic installations by the European Union, as well as declining module prices, it is expected that the number of ground-mounted projects in Europe will experience growth in 2023-2024.
In the Americas, an estimated additional photovoltaic installation capacity of around 64.6 GW is projected for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 65.2%. The installation demand is concentrated in countries like the United States, Brazil, and Chile. Colombia and Canada will also experience a peak in grid connection in 2023. Delays in ground-mounted projects due to factors like the UFLPA Act in the United States and anti-circumvention investigations on Southeast Asian photovoltaic capacity have impacted installation rates. However, the situation is expected to improve in 2023. The IRA Act will stimulate the growth of photovoltaic reserve projects in the United States, potentially doubling the installation demand. Brazil's distributed policy will continue to drive the development of distributed projects (such as residential and commercial rooftop photovoltaic systems), while centralized projects (such as large-scale ground-mounted installations) are expected to experience high-speed growth when the Brazilian government further opens up opportunities.
In the Middle East/Africa region, the photovoltaic market is steadily growing, with an estimated additional installation capacity of 14.9 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 49.5%. The region's installation growth heavily relies on bidding projects, with large-scale ground-mounted projects driving the market demand. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Israel are the main contributing regions. With abundant solar resources, ongoing and planned bidding projects already exceed 9 GW in capacity. Coupled with favorable policies and significant room for development, it is expected that bidding projects in the region will continue to experience sustained growth.
